Global bailout package nears USD 2 trillion

With financial institutions falling prey one after another to the global credit crisis, the bailout packages announced by various governments across the globe are inching towards two trillion-dollar mark -- an amount nearly double the size of Indian economy.
With the US Congress giving nod to USD 700-billion aid for troubled financial institutions in the country, the US government alone has announced a total package worth about 990 billion dollars.
Besides, a handful of European countries have already announced packages worth a similar amount in efforts to save their troubled financial entities.
There are expectations for more such instances of helping hands coming from the governments in Europe as the crisis is said to be fast spreading in the region after a full-blown blast in the US.
However, nothing of this sort is expected in India as the country and its financial institutions have remained mostly insulated from any direct impact of the crisis.
Still, the collective bailout packages in the US and Europe, currently at about 1.8 trillion dollars, could soon be double the size of one trillion-dollar Indian economy.
India's GDP is estimated at Rs 46,93,602 crore for the latest fiscal 2007-08, which stands at just over USD one trillion based on the current exchange rate of about Rs 46.8 to a dollar.
From America to Europe, the deepening financial turmoil has seen the fall of big names, especially in the banking industry, such as the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, firesale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America and the extension of 85 billion-dollar lifeline to AIG

Global turmoil to have minimal impact on India

Despite financial crisis in the US market, India would continue to grow at high rate of 8% to 9%
in the next couple of years.
Chief economic advisor Arvind Virmani told  financial crisis will have a minimal direct impact on Indian
economy and it will grow at the projected rate of around 8% in 2008-09 and 9% in 2009-10.
The main reason behind the optimism is correction in the commodity prices in the international market,
because of the the slowdown in the global economy. The crude oil prices have already corrected to around
$ 100 per barrel from over $ 140 per barrel few weeks back. This will help bring down the inflation in the
country. Virmani said that by March 2009, inflation will be brought down to single digit from over 12% at
present.
However, the financial crisis will have some indirect effect on the Indian economy as it will lead to liqudity
tightening. This will lead to firming up of the interest rates, affect the inflow of foreign direct investment and
export of goods and services to an extent. But, Virmani said these will not have much effect on the growth,
as they can be addressed by tweaking the government policies.
Goldman Sachs also felt in the same manner. In a report, it said, "We believe the credit crisis, which
reversed the tidal wave of cheap foreign capital over the past few years, will have less of an impact on the
economy's fundamentals."
If the inflation is brought down to single digit, the government and the RBI can take measures to ensure
that liquidity crisis does not affect economy. Virmani said that India's financial system remained intact even
during the present crisis. This, he said would give confidence to the foreign investors, including the nonresident
Indians to invest in India.
Goldman Sachs pointed out India's external sector is holding well and various indicators suggest condition
is undercontrol. The financial sector, the report said, remained sound, mortgage are a fraction of total credit
and exposure to inflated real estate is small.

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